Sunday, January 20, 2013

Superbowl Line Predictions

As I did with the BCS Title Game, here are predictions for the point spread and over/under for each of the four possible Super Bowl matchups.  These are taken from my daily rankings page.  The whole point of my team ranking system is to predict point spreads for future matchups (i.e. what and how Vegas "thinks").  So this is just a high profile test of the rankings' accuracy.

As I noted earlier in the week, you really couldn't pick a better matchup from my rankings than Patriots-Niners.  It's the top two teams, they're evenly matched, and it's the number one offense facing off against the number one defense.

See below for the predicted totals and point spreads.  I'll check back over the next two weeks to see how the predictions fared.

Superbowl Matchups
Negative Point Spread Means NFC is Favored
MatchupProbabilityOddsLineTotal
 NE vs. SF  47.2% +112 0.0 52.0
 NE vs. ATL  28.6% +249 4.5 55.0
 BAL vs. SF  15.1% +564 -6.0 44.5
 BAL vs. ATL  9.1% +995 -1.5 47.5
Posted by at 9:25 AM
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2 comments:

  1. The early line:

    49ers a 4 point favorite over the Ravens, over/under of 48 points. Not a huge miss, but not too impressive either. We'll see where things close.

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  2. After spending much of the past two weeks at 3.5, the line has moved to 4.5 points leading up to kickoff. Over/under is now at 47.5 points.

    So, a miss of 1.5 points on the line, and a miss of 3 points on the over/under, which are both right around the mean average error of my rankings (when predicting point spreads and over/unders).

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