NBA Team Rankings - February 25, 2012
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| The New York Knickerbockers Baseball Club |
The rankings were pretty stable this week, especially at the top, with no movement among the top 4. The Heat have maintained their two point GPF cushion over the next best team, the Thunder. This is consistent with the latest NBA Futures Odds, which has the Heat as the clear favorite at 6/5, and the next best team at 5/1 (the Bulls).
Of course, the biggest story in the league is still Jeremy Lin and the Knicks' resurgence. That resurgence has started to show up in the point spreads, as the Knicks climbed from #20 to #13 this week.
The disconnect between the Pacers' #6 W-L record and their #14 GPF rank could be due to strength of schedule (#28 out of 30, according to basketball-reference.com). Their last five games were against the Cavs, the Nets, the Bobcats, the Hornets, and the Bobcats again. Or #26, #25, #30, #27, and #30 (although the number 30 just doesn't do justice to how bad the Bobcats are right now).
The Rankings (glossary below)
| Rank | Team | LstWk | GPF | oGPF | dGPF | GOU | W-L | GWP | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIA | 1 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 2 | 1.0 | 12 | 197 | 4 | 27-7 | 2 | 0.79 |
| 2 |  OKC | 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 1 | -1.5 | 18 | 200 | 2 | 27-7 | 1 | 0.73 |
| 3 |  CHI | 3 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 14 | 5.0 | 6 | 187 | 22 | 27-8 | 3 | 0.69 |
| 4 |  DAL | 4 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 16 | 5.0 | 5 | 186 | 23 | 21-13 | 8 | 0.68 |
| 5 |  LAC | 6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 7 | 2.5 | 9 | 190 | 18 | 20-11 | 5 | 0.67 |
| 6 |  SAS | 5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 5 | 0.5 | 13 | 194 | 10 | 24-10 | 4 | 0.65 |
| 7 |  ORL | 9 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 19 | 5.0 | 4 | 185 | 25 | 22-13 | 7 | 0.65 |
| 8 |  LAL | 8 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 20 | 5.0 | 2 | 185 | 26 | 20-14 | 9 | 0.63 |
| 9 |  POR | 10 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 9 | 2.0 | 10 | 190 | 19 | 18-16 | 14 | 0.63 |
| 10 |  PHI | 7 | 3.0 | -2.5 | 24 | 5.5 | 1 | 183 | 27 | 20-14 | 11 | 0.61 |
| 11 |  HOU | 16 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 8 | -0.5 | 14 | 193 | 11 | 20-14 | 12 | 0.55 |
| 12 |  MEM | 13 | 1.5 | -2.0 | 21 | 3.5 | 8 | 186 | 24 | 19-15 | 13 | 0.55 |
| 13 |  NYK | 20 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 12 | -0.5 | 15 | 193 | 13 | 17-18 | 17 | 0.52 |
| 14 |  IND | 12 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 11 | -0.5 | 16 | 193 | 12 | 21-12 | 6 | 0.52 |
| 15 |  DEN | 11 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 3 | -6.0 | 29 | 202 | 1 | 18-17 | 15 | 0.51 |
| 16 |  MIN | 19 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 6 | -2.5 | 22 | 196 | 7 | 17-17 | 16 | 0.50 |
| 17 |  BOS | 15 | 0.0 | -5.0 | 28 | 5.0 | 3 | 181 | 30 | 15-17 | 18 | 0.49 |
| 18 |  GSW | 17 | -0.5 | 4.0 | 4 | -4.5 | 27 | 199 | 3 | 13-17 | 20 | 0.49 |
| 19 |  ATL | 14 | -0.5 | -4.5 | 26 | 4.0 | 7 | 183 | 28 | 20-14 | 10 | 0.47 |
| 20 |  UTA | 18 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 17 | -1.0 | 17 | 192 | 15 | 15-17 | 19 | 0.46 |
| 21 |  MIL | 21 | -1.5 | 0.5 | 15 | -2.0 | 20 | 194 | 9 | 13-20 | 23 | 0.44 |
| 22 |  PHX | 22 | -1.5 | 1.0 | 13 | -2.5 | 23 | 195 | 8 | 14-20 | 22 | 0.44 |
| 23 |  SAC | 23 | -3.5 | 1.0 | 10 | -4.5 | 28 | 197 | 6 | 11-22 | 24 | 0.37 |
| 24 |  DET | 25 | -5.0 | -3.0 | 25 | -2.0 | 21 | 191 | 17 | 11-24 | 25 | 0.31 |
| 25 |  NJN | 26 | -5.0 | -2.5 | 23 | -2.5 | 24 | 191 | 16 | 10-25 | 27 | 0.31 |
| 26 |  CLE | 24 | -5.5 | -2.0 | 22 | -3.5 | 26 | 192 | 14 | 13-18 | 21 | 0.31 |
| 27 |  NOH | 27 | -5.5 | -7.5 | 30 | 2.0 | 11 | 181 | 29 | 8-25 | 28 | 0.31 |
| 28 |  WAS | 28 | -6.0 | 0.0 | 18 | -6.0 | 30 | 197 | 5 | 7-26 | 29 | 0.28 |
| 29 |  TOR | 29 | -6.0 | -5.0 | 27 | -1.0 | 19 | 187 | 20 | 10-23 | 26 | 0.28 |
| 30 |  CHA | 30 | -10.0 | -7.0 | 29 | -3.0 | 25 | 187 | 21 | 4-28 | 30 | 0.17 |
GLOSSARY
LstWk - The BTM ranking from last week.
GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored". It's what you would expect the team to be favored by against a league average opponent at a neutral site.
oGPF - Stands for "Offensive Generic Points Favored". The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to score points (per game).
dGPF - Stands for "Defensive Generic Points Favored". The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to prevent the other team from scoring points (per game).
GOU - Stands for "Generic Over/Under". It's what you would expect the betting over/under to be for the given team when playing a league average opponent.
W-L - The team's win/loss record (and win percentage rank)
GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability". I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: 1/(1 + exp(-GPF/6.5)).
Additional Key Factors:
- League Average Points Scored (APS): 95.5 points
- Home Court Advantage (HCA): 3.25 points
- Back to Back Penalty (B2B): -0.75 points (see here)
How to Use This Table to Build Point Spreads and Over/Unders
- Point Spread (in favor of home team) = HCA + (B2Bhome - B2Baway) + (GPFhome - GPFaway)
- Over/Under = 2*APS + (oGPFhome + oGPFaway - dGPFhome - dGPFaway)
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